Ladies and gentlemen; comrades in trading, and friends!
I am pleased to have been asked by the Premo Social team to come on board as a content creator. I have been sharing my analysis of commodities, currencies, rates, single stocks and their volatilities on twitter and on my blog for a number of years now. Those who have followed will know a little about my process, as will those who have read my essays and publications for clients.
I see appeal in the idea of curating my favourite arguments for action separately from the flow of retweets and information sharing which often tends to drown out the best ideas amongst the noise. Certainly, one doesn’t have to see the jokes and banter which are common with a community which has developed some camaraderie. Hence, being incentivised to do so will be great encouragement to bring you favourable risk/reward setups going forward. As well as more insight into a logical, repeatable trading process.
Initially the price for access is $20 a month, getting you timely access to my ideas, charts, models and analysis, as well as a portfolio tracking those ideas. Nb. this is subject to change and may go up depending on the time investment required.
As a kicker, all customers will receive a free copy of my book Reflexive Macro: A Behavioural Approach to Global Macro Trading upon its publication, which I now anticipate will be in 2018.
I look forward to bringing more good quality ideas going forward!
Further, please read on to get an idea of what to expect on Prometheus Macro’s Premo Social…
Addendum, notes on 2017:
This year I have seen quite a decent level of success in terms of calibrating the process to the environment and performance has followed.
In the precious metals complex, my mean reversion models have delivered rather favourable entries and exits in gold, silver and platinum. In copper and iron ore my exhaustion model managed to nail the recent top almost to the day, as demonstrated by my average price in copper where I am short from an avg. $3.1364.
Whilst I don’t employ these methods systematically, all of these signals I adhered to were shared with an explanation of my reasoning and many of the relevant ones that I ignored were also shared with commentary as to why.
In currencies, as outlined in my February essay The Common Law Premium, I have been long GBPUSD (avg. 125.13), short EURGBP (avg. 85.07) and long GBPJPY (avg. 151.96). GBPUSD and GBPJPY have been tremendous as I am up about over 10 big figures. Whilst, comparatively only mildly underwater in EURGBP…
In equities I have shorted Apple against Microsoft, who’s next generation of product is far sexier and far better. I am long BTI because cigarettes are sufficiently price inelastic to handle growing tax burdens for smokers. I am short QBE AU who have the convex mixture of a declining business and the catalyst of exposure to the first-loss on the riskiest mortgages in Australia. Let alone all the other catastrophic risks that can impair its balance sheet, such as hurricanes and cyclones. This thread on QBE will give some insight into the type of analysis that one can expect on the Prometheus Macro stream.
In vol I had successful short vol trades in EWZ and GBP, both of which exploited high post-political shock implied volatilities. The day after EWZ gapped down on the Temer corruption revelations, I counter-intuitively concluded that holding three consecutive Presidents to account for corruption was instead somewhat bullish and it provided a great time to opportunistically sshort vol. This prompts me to consider writing something on the anatomy of a short vol trade after a geopolitical shock and my framework for it (watch this space). On the long vol side, I have been long gold vol in GCZ7, having recently legged out of the calls above $1300.
Finally, whilst this year has seen me perform well and deliver a very high success rate, this does not mean I am infallible… I will try to keep it up while patiently waiting for the edges to appear, but even then, markets have an ability to humble even the greatest traders. Thus, focusing on sizeable risk reward. Certainly, being accountable to the audience will provide some extra motivation to share insights that are statistically reliable over numerous iterations.