Reflexive Macro Blog: A Re-introduction

I’ve been trading for roughly seven years, the last three of which have been working with a long volatility biased relative value arbitrage fund – a mouthful I know! My role was global macro strategist, however my responsibilities covered the whole spectrum of the trading process from idea generation, to expression, to position sizing, to execution and trading (as well as lots of delta re-balancing).

Learning about volatility and derivatives from this perspective has (I think) greatly enhanced my abilities in macro. Maybe that means I’m no longer just a directional discretionary cowboy.

Ever since I began to take an interest in markets, “macro” has, at least to me, felt like the most natural approach. Starting out I found it hard not to ask the big questions, deciding that if one chooses a strategy that does not include top-down decisions and as a result defaults into one’s own currency for example, invariably one has made a decision. I’m fond of these existential questions, it’s no wonder then that I call myself a behaviouralist. Nb. The Queen’s English only on this blog!

Presently I’m running a global macro fund and consulting business. I have been consulting since 2011, essentially the business involves sharing my highest conviction trades with institutional clients (HF’s and family offices). Now that I’m flying solo, I’ve finally got around to getting the website set up. It’s currently under construction, however the link is prometheus-am.com. My objective now the business is formalised is to share my highest conviction ideas on an ad-hoc basis (between 6-12 high quality ideas per annum). Please feel free to reach out and I’ll share some of my work.

I have refined my process through which I filter my ideas over a number of years and if they don’t stand the test of scrutiny, which ultimately boils down to expected value and an implied expectations gap; then I won’t pull the trigger. I will outline my behavioural framework in essay form in a later post.

Being an autodidact I’m very much still learning, so if you have a divergent opinion or any dis-confirming evidence regarding my process or any of my ideas/hypotheses, please share, I will appreciate it.

Einstein’s observation in a letter to his son is one that resonates well with how I got to this point in my career:

“Mainly play the things on the piano which please you, even if the teacher does not assign those. That is the way to learn the most, that when you are doing something with such enjoyment that you don’t notice that the time passes.” – Albert Einstein

I’m in this business because I enjoy it, the freedom to read, study and think as I please is my greatest passion, so be prepared for a broad spectrum of ideas and observations on this blog.

I’m not sure how, although I have come to be fairly active on twitter, you’ll find me @PrometheusAM.

Best,
Carl

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